Texans Cast More Than 7.4 Million Early Ballots as Turnout Reaches 39 Percent

More than 7.4 million Texans voted early for the November 3 election, about 39 percent of registered voters, according to preliminary Secretary of State records reported by The Texas Tribune on Saturday.

That is a record for a Texas midterm, the Tribune reported. In-person early voting ended Friday.

The count is still moving. Each county reports its own turnout, some sooner than others, and mail ballots are still coming in, the Tribune reported.

The state’s files listed 7,478,149 voters Saturday evening, 7,219,441 in person and 258,708 by mail, by the Texian Partisan’s tally of the daily early voting rosters. That is 39.3 percent of the state’s 19,041,684 registered voters, and more than 3.3 million above the count through the first six days of voting.

“We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout,” Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told the Tribune. He said the open question is, “How many votes are actually still out there?”

How It Compares

Texas has more voters to count than in any earlier election. Registration is up 2.2 percent from November 2024 and about 3.2 million from November 2018, according to the state’s turnout tables.

The early count alone is about 625,000 short of every vote cast in the 2022 midterm, when 8,102,908 Texans voted, or 45.85 percent of those registered. Turnout in the 2018 midterm was 8,371,655, or 53.01 percent.

In 2022, 5.5 million Texans voted early, a 31 percent rate, the Tribune reported. In the 2024 presidential election, 9 million voted early, a 49 percent rate.

The Tribune said this year’s rate nearly matches the midterm high set in 2018. That comparison has a limit. The state began tracking daily early voting across all 254 counties only in 2020, the Tribune reported in 2022. Its 2018 figures cover the 30 counties with the most registered voters, home to 78 percent of the electorate, where almost 40 percent of registered voters cast ballots early.

Who Is Voting

The top of the ballot is drawing much of the attention. State Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat, and Attorney General Ken Paxton, a McKinney Republican, are in a tight race for U.S. Senate, the Tribune reported. Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican seeking a fourth term, faces state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat.

Texas has no party registration. A primary ballot is the closest public record of party, and it shows past behavior, not how anyone voted this fall.

Of the 6,879,963 voters matched on the state’s rosters so far, 1,722,086 voted in the Democratic primary on March 3, or 25 percent, and 1,587,333 voted in the Republican primary, or 23.1 percent, by the Texian Partisan’s tally. Another 3,569,369, or 51.9 percent, voted in neither.

A longer look gives a similar split. Consultant Derek Ryan’s data showed 35 percent of ballots through October 26 came from voters with a Democratic primary history and 32.7 percent from voters with a Republican one, The Texan reported. Ryan also said more voters have Republican primary history across the last four election cycles, and that he expects the Democratic edge to shrink if the party’s base turns out.

Ryan told NBC DFW on October 27 that 2 million reliable Republican primary voters had not yet voted. He has said the rural share of the vote must reach “at least 25%” for Republicans to hold statewide office.

NBC DFW reported Hispanic voters turning out at a rate roughly 3 percent higher than four years ago. Harris, Dallas and Tarrant counties are running ahead of past midterms, the Tribune reported. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, told the Tribune the late surge likely means more Hispanic and Black Texans are voting. “That doesn’t mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose,” he said.

What Comes Next

Polls on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time.

The Texian Partisan’s election night page tracks early voting county by county and adds county reports that run ahead of the state’s files, so its total can read higher. It will carry live results for every statewide race from 7 p.m. Central on November 3.