Austin Flipped, Washington Didn't: What the Midterm Wave Means for a Texas Independence Vote

Two nights after a midterm that changed every statewide office in Texas, Daniel Miller walked through the TNM's analysis of the results before sharing it anywhere else. More than 9.9 million Texans voted for governor, about 1.8 million more than in 2022. Every one of the 254 counties moved toward Democrats, and if current leads in the Texas House hold through the canvass, Democrats will control the chamber. Miller's reading: about two-thirds of the swing was the same tide that ran against the party in the White House in every state, and the deciding voters were independents voting against whoever held power in Washington and Austin. Most of the Democratic margin came from registered voters who rarely vote in midterms, banked in early voting and missed by likely-voter screens in the final polls.

The Texas First Pledge held. Every Texas House incumbent who signed it and ran again is ahead, most by wide margins, and the pledge showed no measurable cost against the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, 16 House incumbents fell behind, many of them members who had refused to give the TNM the time of day. Miller's point to anyone treating Tuesday as a verdict on independence: it was not one. Texas independence was not on the ballot, the issue draws support from independents and Democrats as well as Republicans, and Washington did not change. The federal debt, the interest bill, and Social Security's insolvency date are all still there, now under divided government.

The opening is in Austin. For the first time since a referendum bill was written, the outcome in the legislature is not already decided. Miller sent an open letter to Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin holding them to their own record on putting major questions to the voters, and the TNM will publish any response in full. Prefiling opens November 9 and the House gavels in January 12. His message to supporters: registered is not enough, organized is what wins.