State Rep. Brad Buckley, R-Salado, has asked ERCOT to explain why two of its planning models, both part of the case for three 765-kilovolt lines from Central Texas to the Permian Basin, assume such different amounts of new power generation. In a September 22 letter to ERCOT Chief Operating Officer Woody Rickerson, filed with the Public Utility Commission the next day, Buckley wrote that ERCOT’s 2024 Regional Transmission Plan included about 59,200 megawatts of new generation to meet 2030 demand, while the 2024 Permian Basin Reliability Plan needed only about 17,170 megawatts.
The gap is “so drastic that it is difficult to imagine that both models are using anywhere near the same load forecast,” Buckley wrote.
His reading is that the Permian plan added new forecast demand in the Permian Basin but not in the rest of the state, while placing new generation elsewhere to supply the power the lines would carry west. “If ERCOT developed the original need for the three Permian import lines from a model with an outdated representation of expected future demand and generation, then the Legislature and my constituents need to understand how the current RTPs justify the import lines,” he wrote.
The letter asks whether the Permian plan was built from the same statewide models ERCOT uses for its regional plans, and what demand forecasts it assumed for the rest of the grid. It also asks where the power to feed the lines will come from, since ERCOT’s own Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, Buckley wrote, shows the statewide planning reserve margin going “sharply negative by 2030.” Buckley wrote that he understands the three lines would carry about 7 gigawatts in total, a figure he asks ERCOT to confirm, while the West load zone has less than 5 gigawatts of natural gas generation today against 23 gigawatts of load forecast for the Permian Basin.
The Public Utility Commission unanimously approved the Permian Basin Reliability Plan on September 26, 2024. House Bill 5066, passed in 2023, required the commission to direct ERCOT to write the plan, and ERCOT forecast that demand in the region would reach about 26 gigawatts by 2038. The plan the commission approved paired local transmission upgrades with new import paths to bring power into the region.
Buckley’s letter follows an August 12 response ERCOT sent to questions from state Rep. Charlie Geren. Buckley copied all five PUC commissioners and ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas, and asked for “a prompt answer.”
The Legislature ordered the Permian plan in 2023, and a member of that Legislature is now asking the grid operator to show its work. The answer is owed in the same public docket where the question was filed.
Comments have moved. The real debate about Texas independence now happens with thousands of Texians in the app.
Get the TEXIAN app
