Alberta’s relationship with the Canadian federal government has reached a critical juncture, with Premier Danielle Smith recently issuing an ultimatum that could potentially lead to an independence referendum if her demands aren’t met.
In March 2025, Smith warned that Canada would face an “unprecedented national unity crisis” unless her nine specific demands were met within six months of the new government taking office following Canada’s April 28 national election. These demands focus primarily on energy development and provincial autonomy, including ensuring Alberta can build pipelines to all three coasts, eliminating environmental regulations, lifting bans on tanker traffic, and removing caps on oil and gas industry emissions.
Smith’s United Conservative Party government has already taken significant legislative steps toward increased autonomy by adopting a provincial “sovereignty” law that challenges the existing federal-provincial constitutional order, potentially providing a mechanism for Alberta to assert greater independence from federal authority.
While maintaining she’s working to “fix Canada,” Smith has carefully avoided closing the door on independence, announcing plans for a “what’s next?” panel following the federal election to gauge public interest in Alberta sovereignty. “I got a mandate to try to make Canada work and that’s what I’ve been working toward relentlessly for the last two-and-a-half years,” Smith stated.
Recent polling data shows growing support for potential separation. An Angus Reid Institute poll found that 30% of Albertans would vote to leave Canada if the Liberal Party wins the upcoming federal election, while another independent poll commissioned by journalist Rachel Parker showed 37% support for Alberta independence.
The Republican Party of Alberta has emerged as a significant separatist organization, advocating not only for independence but also exploring the possibility of joining the United States. The party claims that 11 UCP MLAs, including five Cabinet ministers, support holding a binding independence referendum before the next provincial election.
Alberta, like Texas, has established legal mechanisms for citizen-led referenda. The Citizen Initiative Act allows Albertans to force a referendum by collecting sufficient signatures, creating a potential pathway for an independence vote outside direct government action.
Independence advocates argue that approximately $60 billion annually would remain in Alberta rather than being sent to Ottawa for redistribution to other provinces. They claim separation would eliminate multiple federal taxes and free Alberta from regulations over resource development, speech, agriculture, health, travel, and gun ownership.
Despite growing support, significant obstacles remain. The 30-37% support for independence falls short of the “clear majority” required by a 1998 Supreme Court ruling on provincial separation. Additionally, economic uncertainties, Indigenous rights, and Alberta’s landlocked geography present substantial challenges.
The outcome of the April 28 federal election will likely be a critical inflection point. If the Liberal Party forms government as polls suggest, separatist sentiment may accelerate, potentially triggering Premier Smith’s “what’s next?” panel and citizen-led referendum initiatives.
For Texans watching these developments, Alberta’s moves toward greater autonomy and potential independence reflect similar tensions over state sovereignty, resource control, and federal overreach that drive our own self-determination movement.
