Recent polling from the United Kingdom shows unprecedented levels of support for independence movements across all four constituent nations, suggesting the once-unthinkable breakup of the UK may become a political reality in the coming years.
According to polling figures released on April 5th, support for Scottish independence has reached 52%, while 46% of voters in Northern Ireland now support unification with the Republic of Ireland, and 41% of Welsh voters back independence. These figures, which exclude undecided voters and factor in likelihood to vote, represent the highest combined support for independence movements ever recorded across these regions.
Perhaps most striking to observers is the significant support for English independence, which stands at 49% according to a 2020 Panelbase poll for Business for Scotland. This survey asked English residents whether “England should be an independent country and Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should be allowed to stand on their own two feet.”
The data reveals a United Kingdom increasingly divided along national lines, with powerful advocacy organizations in each constituent nation pushing their respective independence agendas.
Scotland: SNP Leads Independence Push
The Scottish National Party (SNP), founded in 1934, has transformed from a fringe movement to Scotland’s largest political party and the dominant force in Scottish politics. The party currently holds 62 of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and advocates for Scottish independence within the European Union, with a platform based on progressive social democratic policies and civic nationalism. The SNP has committed to using future elections to advance the cause of independence, viewing it as increasingly urgent given what they call the “Cost of Westminster Crisis”.
SNP leader John Swinney has made independence central to the party’s platform, arguing that Scotland’s sovereignty would enable it to better address Scottish priorities from tackling cost-of-living issues to protecting public services.
Wales: Plaid Cymru and YesCymru Build Momentum
In Wales, Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales) leads the political push for independence. Founded in 1925, the party is committed to Welsh independence from the United Kingdom and campaigns on a platform of social democracy and civic nationalism. The party currently holds 12 of 60 seats in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) and 4 of 32 Welsh seats in the UK Parliament.
Alongside the political party stands YesCymru, a non-partisan grassroots movement founded in 2014 that advocates for Welsh independence. The organization describes itself as “the mass movement for an Independent Wales” and emphasizes that “all who support Welsh independence are welcome to join”. YesCymru has organized several major independence marches across Wales, with attendance ranging from 3,000 to 10,000 people.
Northern Ireland: Sinn Féin Advances United Ireland Agenda
In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin has become the largest party, winning 29% of first-preference votes in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election. The party advocates for Irish reunification and an end to the political partition of the island of Ireland. Founded in 1905, Sinn Féin is Ireland’s oldest political movement and operates in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
In November 2020, Sinn Féin leadership reached out to several other republican political groups to create a united campaign calling for a referendum on Irish unification. The party’s success in winning the most seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time ever in 2022 has given new momentum to the unification movement.
England: The English Constitution Party
While less prominent than its counterparts in other UK nations, the English Constitution Party (ECP) advocates for English independence and the restoration of the English constitution. Led by Graham Moore, the party believes that the Act of Union should be voided, which they argue would restore common law protections for English citizens.
Though lacking electoral success, the ECP has organized protests and campaigns promoting English sovereignty. The party has participated in several elections, including the 2024 UK general election, but has yet to win any seats.
Unlike the independence movements in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which have gained substantial mainstream political traction, English nationalism remains a more fragmented force. However, the 49% support for independence revealed in polling suggests potential for significant growth if a more unified movement emerges.
Implications for the Future
These growing independence movements collectively represent the most serious challenge to the United Kingdom’s territorial integrity in modern history. The potential departure of Scotland or Northern Ireland would fundamentally alter the UK’s political landscape, economy, and international standing.
For supporters of these movements, independence represents an opportunity to address regional grievances, pursue distinctive policies tailored to their populations, and establish more direct relationships with the European Union and international community.
The data suggests that far from being isolated phenomena, independence movements in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and England reflect a broader trend of regions seeking greater control over their political, economic, and cultural destinies in an age of increasing centralization.
