A new study by Dr. Thomas R. Brooks, Assistant Professor of Psychology at New Mexico Highlands University, stands as a perfect example of everything wrong with polling on TEXIT. Released on December 6, 2024, the study claims 82% of Texans oppose independence. However, like most modern political polling, its methodology is fundamentally flawed.
The study, conducted between August and November 2024, demonstrates the deep problems that have plagued political polling for over a decade. Using deeply problematic sampling methods, it dramatically overrepresented urban Democrats while largely excluding rural Texans and conservatives. The timing during the heated 2024 presidential election further undermines its credibility.
The study’s issues are extensive and mirror the problems the TNM has consistently highlighted with modern political polling:
- Heavy reliance on undergraduate students and urban populations, creating a sample that doesn’t reflect Texas’s demographic reality
- Nearly double the number of Democrat respondents compared to Republicans
- Complete failure to properly weight the data to match Texas’s actual population
- Lack of transparency about the exact wording of survey questions
- No attempt to capture rural perspectives despite their historical importance to the independence movement
The timing and methodological choices suggest this study was crafted to create anti-TEXIT headlines rather than contribute meaningful research. By focusing sampling efforts on urban universities during an election, it captured a narrow, unrepresentative slice of Texas opinion. The study appears designed to generate headlines rather than provide meaningful insights into Texan attitudes toward independence.
“This study represents everything the Texas Nationalist Movement has been saying about polling for years,” notes TNM President Daniel Miller in his comprehensive critique. “Rather than seeking to understand the legitimate concerns driving support for Texas independence, such polls appear designed to marginalize and dismiss those voices.”
Previous independent polling has consistently shown much higher levels of TEXIT support, particularly among rural Texans and conservatives who were largely excluded from Dr. Brooks’ sample. These polls have demonstrated support ranging from 40-60% depending on how questions are worded. The stark contrast between these results and Dr. Brooks’ findings raises serious questions about his methodology and sample selection.
This flawed study ultimately serves as a reminder of why Texas needs independence – our future shouldn’t be analyzed and defined by out-of-state academics pushing predetermined narratives. Texans deserve research that actually reflects our state’s diversity and treats the question of independence with the seriousness it deserves.
The Texas Nationalist Movement will continue advocating for honest discussion of TEXIT based on sound methodology and respect for all Texan voices. The movement’s growth and momentum can’t be dismissed by methodologically bankrupt studies, no matter how prominently they’re promoted.
The deficiencies in Dr. Brooks’ study highlight a broader issue in political polling that the TNM has discussed extensively. Political polling has been fundamentally broken for over a decade, with high-profile failures in presidential and gubernatorial races demonstrating the increasing inability of polls to accurately capture public sentiment. The problems that plague general political polling are even more pronounced when it comes to measuring support for TEXIT, where methodology and sample selection are crucial.
But here’s what really matters: No poll or survey, no matter how well or poorly conducted, can substitute for a binding vote by the people of Texas. The only poll that truly counts is the one where Texans enter their local polling places and cast binding votes on TEXIT. Instead of debating flawed polls and biased surveys, we should be focused on giving Texans the opportunity to make their voices heard through a binding referendum.
The full critique detailing the study’s numerous methodological failures can be downloaded here. The original study can be downloaded here.
Let Texans vote. Everything else is just noise.
The best way to counter this is to run your own polling fixing the errors of this one and then posting the polls side by side and showing where the errors were and the corrections made.
Then get this in front of the politicians instead of just protesting their ways.
Show them we are correct, show them the proof.
To not do so is giving up.