When the host asked Austrian economist Robert Murphy to name one country to “long” and one to “short,” Murphy didn’t pause.
“Short United States and long the Republic of Texas.”
The question came during a rapid-fire segment on the Monetary Metals podcast, recorded December 1st. For anyone unfamiliar with the terminology, to go long means you’re betting an asset will rise in value. To go short means you’re betting it will fall. Investors short stocks they think are overvalued, companies they think are headed for trouble.
Murphy just told an audience of gold investors to short the United States.
Who Said This
Robert Murphy holds a PhD in economics from NYU. He’s Chief Economist at Infineo, Senior Fellow at both the Mises Institute and the Fraser Institute, and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. He’s written books on Austrian economics, debated Paul Krugman, and spent years as Senior Economist at the Institute for Energy Research.
More relevant to Texians: Murphy wrote Common Sense: The Case for an Independent Texas back in 2021. The title echoes Thomas Paine for a reason. Murphy’s been making the economic argument for TEXIT for years. This podcast answer wasn’t a throwaway joke. It was the thesis of his book compressed into nine words.
The Short Case
Murphy’s bearish on the United States because the math doesn’t work anymore.
The federal debt crossed $38 trillion—over 120% of GDP. The federal government borrows more than $6 billion every day just to keep operating. Interest payments on the debt now exceed the entire defense budget. Not approaching it. Exceeding it.
The dollar’s share of global reserves dropped to 56.9%—lowest since 1994. Central banks are diversifying out of Treasuries. China cut its holdings 45% from their 2013 peak.
Austrian economists like Murphy have been warning about Fed policy for decades. Some of those warnings arrived early. But the trajectory hasn’t changed. The Fed’s balance sheet ballooned from under $1 trillion before 2008 to $9 trillion at its peak. That’s not a typo. Nine trillion.
Murphy’s position: the U.S. dollar’s days as world reserve currency are numbered. The numbers increasingly back him up.
The Long Case
If the United States is a short, why is Texas a long?
Start with the economy. Texas GDP hit $2.77 trillion. As an independent nation, it’s the 8th largest in the world. Bigger than Canada. Bigger than Russia. Bigger than Australia.
Then there’s energy. Texas produces 43% of America’s crude oil and 25% of its natural gas. The state generates more electricity than any other—more than twice as much as second-place Florida. And unlike every other state, Texas runs its own grid through ERCOT. When Murphy talks about an independent Texas, he’s talking about a country that could actually function as one.
An independent Texas wouldn’t just scrape by. It would be an energy superpower with a diversified economy, no income tax, and genuine self-sufficiency.
Why This Matters
Murphy isn’t some Cheeto-fingered blogger with opinions. He’s a credentialed economist with a PhD from NYU, senior fellowships at multiple research institutes, and a book-length argument for Texas independence already in print. He put his thesis in writing four years ago and just repeated it to an audience of serious investors.
When academics start treating Texas like a separate investment thesis—one worth betting on while betting against the United States—something has shifted. The intellectual case for TEXIT is being made by people with letters after their names and positions at research institutions.
The Bottom Line
Murphy’s rapid-fire answer boiled years of analysis down to a single forecast: the United States is on a trajectory of decline. Texas has the fundamentals to chart a different course.
Short United States. Long Texas.
The smart money is paying attention.
