Three weeks before Quebec votes, the party leading the polls has put a price and a timetable on a third referendum on sovereignty. Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said this week that the vote would cost at least $130 million Canadian: $20 million for studies and consultations early in a PQ government’s term, and $110 million to hold the referendum itself in 2029 or 2030.
“People will have their say, but we won’t apologize for living in a democracy and for consulting the people,” St-Pierre Plamondon said. He framed the case in fiscal terms. “The goal is to end federal waste that duplicates everything we do.”
His rivals went after the price. Premier Christine Fréchette, who leads the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, said, “It’s $130 million that frankly, could be invested elsewhere.” Liberal leader Charles Milliard offered a ledger of his own: “We could offer close to one million hours of home care. We could build probably three elementary schools.” Conservative leader Éric Duhaime called the spending unacceptable while living costs remain high. Québec solidaire, which has budgeted $220 million for a constitutional assembly tied to sovereignty, defended it.
The PQ goes into the last three weeks of the campaign in front. Léger’s most recent poll, dated September 6, put it at 29 percent, ahead of the CAQ at 23 and the Liberals at 22, with the Conservatives at 15 and Québec solidaire at 10. Pallas Data’s, dated September 5, also had the PQ at 29. A majority in the 127-seat National Assembly takes 64 seats.
St-Pierre Plamondon has said the promise holds however the seats fall. “Whether we’re in a minority or majority, that commitment doesn’t change,” he said. The party has pledged a referendum in its first term but has said it will not hold one before January 20, 2029, when the current U.S. presidential term ends.
Quebec has voted on sovereignty twice. In 1980 it said no by about 60 percent to 40. In 1995 the No side won by 50.58 percent to 49.42, a margin of about 54,000 votes out of about 4.7 million cast. The bond market has so far charged little for the prospect of a third vote.
Two of the PQ’s rivals have settled on the same pitch: vote for us and you will not be asked. Milliard says that for Quebecers who don’t want a referendum, “there’s only one address, and that’s the Quebec Liberal Party.” Duhaime has promised that if the Conservatives hold the balance of power, “there won’t be a referendum.” On October 5, Quebecers decide whether they want to be asked.
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