Quebecers elect a new government on Monday, October 5, and the party promising a referendum on independence has led the late polls. A Leger survey for Le Journal and TVA, conducted online September 25 to 27 among 1,001 eligible voters, put the Parti Québécois at 30 percent, the Liberals at 26, the Conservatives at 18 and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec at 16. Among francophone voters the PQ stood at 37 percent. A Pallas Data poll taken over the same weekend also had the PQ at 30.
The party has put its promise in writing. In an August 18 statement, leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said a PQ government would consult Quebecers on independence during its first term, and that it would not hold a referendum before January 20, 2029, when Donald Trump’s presidential term ends. He has also priced it. He told The Canadian Press the referendum would cost at least $130 million: $20 million for studies and consultations early in the term and $110 million to hold the vote in 2029 or 2030.
Most voters still oppose independence itself. A Synopsis poll for La Presse, conducted September 24 to 27 among 1,000 Quebecers, found 25 percent would vote yes to sovereignty if a referendum were held today, 63 percent would vote no and 12 percent were unsure. The same poll found 26 percent named St-Pierre Plamondon the best choice for premier, ahead of Premier Christine Fréchette at 18.
His rivals have run against the referendum. Conservative leader Éric Duhaime has promised to try to block one and has asked voters to keep the PQ short of a majority. Liberal leader Charles Milliard has cast himself as the only federalist in the race, and in the final debate he pointed out that both Duhaime and Fréchette voted yes to leaving Canada in 1995.
The seat projections favor the PQ. On September 28 the aggregator Qc125 projected 67 seats for the party, three more than the 64 needed for a majority, with the Liberals at 37 and the CAQ at none.
Nearly a quarter of voters have already cast ballots. Élections Québec reported advance turnout of 23.59 percent after the two days of advance voting on September 27 and 28, counting ballots cast on campuses and in seniors’ residences, according to The Canadian Press. In the 2022 general election the figure was 24.8 percent.
The Parti Québécois has put the referendum and its earliest date on the record. On Monday, Quebecers decide whether to hand it the government that would call the vote.
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