Every movement needs a roadmap. Every campaign needs a plan. And every serious effort to achieve something as monumental as Texas independence needs to be built on more than passion—it needs to be built on hard numbers and cold reality.
Here’s the reality: TEXIT isn’t just about holding a vote. It’s not about waving flags or posting on social media. It’s about building the capacity to mobilize enough Texans to vote yes on independence and win decisively.
So what does that actually look like?
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Texas has roughly 17 million registered voters. In a high-stakes referendum on independence, we can expect strong turnout—somewhere in the range of 70-75% of registered voters. That means we’re looking at roughly 12 to 13 million Texans showing up to vote.
To win that referendum, we need a clear majority. Not just 50% plus one, but a decisive victory that can’t be questioned or challenged. That means we need between 9.2 and 9.6 million yes votes—approximately 53-54% of those who show up to vote.
Let me put that in perspective. That’s more votes than any candidate has ever received in any Texas election. Ever.
That’s the mountain we have to climb.
The 15,832 Solution
Here’s where it gets interesting and where the path forward becomes clear.
If we had 15,832 committed activists across Texas, each one personally connecting with and mobilizing 100 voters to support independence, we’d reach between 1.5 and 1.6 million people directly. Factor in each of those voters influencing their own networks—family, friends, neighbors, coworkers—and you start to see how the numbers compound.
This isn’t pie-in-the-sky thinking. This is how successful movements are built. One person reaches a hundred. Those hundred reach their circles. The message spreads organically, person to person, conversation to conversation.
But here’s the critical part: these 15,832 people can’t just be supporters. They can’t be people who agree with independence in theory but do nothing about it. They need to be activists with unshakeable belief—Texans who are committed for the long haul, who will put in the work, who won’t quit when things get difficult.
What Does an Activist Actually Do?
An activist isn’t someone who just likes and shares posts on social media. An activist is someone who:
- Talks to people face-to-face about independence
- Attends meetings and training sessions
- Volunteers at events
- Distributes literature
- Registers new supporters
- Helps organize their county
- Stays engaged month after month, year after year
Each one of these 15,832 activists needs to personally connect with at least 100 voters. Not through mass emails or Facebook posts—through real conversations. Through building relationships. Through answering questions and addressing concerns. Through showing people why Texas independence isn’t just possible, but necessary.
This is retail politics at its most fundamental level. It’s grassroots organizing in its purest form.
The Capacity Building Challenge
Right now, we don’t have 15,832 activists with unshakeable belief spread across Texas’s 254 counties. We’re building toward that number. Every county that moves from Exploring to Interest to Pre-Launch to Active status represents progress toward that goal. Every training workshop we hold develops more activists. Every new supporter we register moves us closer.
Capacity building isn’t glamorous work. It’s not as exciting as talking about what independent Texas will look like or debating post-independence policies. But it’s the only way we get there.
Think of it like building a house. You can draw up the most beautiful architectural plans in the world, but if you don’t pour a foundation and frame the walls, you’re never moving in. Capacity building is pouring that foundation. It’s unglamorous, it’s time-consuming, and it’s absolutely essential.
Why These Numbers Matter
Some people in the Texas independence movement want to skip straight to the referendum. They want to bypass the hard work of organizing and mobilizing. They think if we just got a vote on the ballot tomorrow, Texans would vote yes.
They’re wrong.
Without the capacity to mobilize voters, without the network of activists reaching people in every corner of Texas, without the grassroots infrastructure to run a winning campaign—we’d lose that referendum. And losing would set the cause of Texas independence back decades.
That’s why we focus on capacity building. That’s why we talk about the 15,832 activists. That’s why we emphasize the long-term strategic work instead of looking for shortcuts.
The Timeline Reality
How long does it take to build this kind of capacity? The honest answer is: as long as it takes.
We’re not on a fixed timeline. We don’t have a deadline imposed from outside. What we have is a clear understanding that the faster we build capacity, the sooner we can push for the referendum vote.
This could take two years. It could take ten. It could take longer. The timeline depends entirely on how quickly we can recruit, train, and activate those 15,832 committed activists across Texas.
Every person reading this who decides to become one of those activists shortens that timeline. Every person who commits to reaching 100 voters in their community moves us closer. Every county that gets organized accelerates the process.
The Federal Government Won’t Stop Us
Here’s what’s important to understand: the Federal Government can’t stop this process. They can’t prevent Texans from organizing. They can’t prevent us from building capacity. They can’t prevent us from training activists, holding meetings, or distributing literature.
And once we have the capacity built, once we have those 15,832 activists in place and ready to mobilize voters, the Federal Government can’t prevent the Texas Legislature from passing a referendum bill. They can’t prevent Texans from voting. And they can’t prevent us from winning.
The only way TEXIT fails is if we fail to build the capacity. The only way Texas remains in a dysfunctional union that doesn’t serve our interests is if Texans decide the hard work of organizing isn’t worth it.
What This Means for You
If you’re reading this and thinking about Texas independence—wondering if it’s possible, wondering if it’s worth fighting for—the answer comes down to this question: Will you be one of the 15,832?
Will you commit to being an activist, not just a supporter? Will you reach out to 100 people in your community and talk to them about independence? Will you put in the work, month after month, to build the capacity we need to win?
Because that’s what it takes. Not hope. Not wishes. Not social media posts. Committed activists doing the hard work of organizing and mobilizing voters.
We need 15,832 people with unshakeable belief in Texas independence, each committed to reaching 100 voters. That’s the math. That’s the roadmap. That’s how we win.
The only question left is: Are you in?
